One way to understand the effects of global warming in our future is to look to our past. A former Guggenheim Fellow, archaeologist Brian Fagan does just this in his latest book, “The Long Summer: How Climate Changed Civilization” (Basic Books). By weaving together an outstanding amount of the latest climatology research, Fagan lays out the historical context in which to understand current climatic events, like global warming and El Nino. He spoke with NEWSWEEK’s Sarah Sennott in London about the issue of global warming and what he calls civilization’s “threshold of vulnerability.” Excerpts:
NEWSWEEK: This book is very comprehensive, not quite an easy read. Who would you say is your average reader?
Brian Fagan: I wrote it for a number of different audiences: for any reader interested in the past and archaeology, or for anyone seriously concerned with climate, like informed scientists. But [it’s] mainly for anyone out there who is concerned about climate change, who isn’t aware that what is going on today has a past, and who sees the ice age as a thing of the past. [Scientists say “the little ice age”–during which the Baltic Sea and Thames River froze, and glaciers overtook Alpine villages–only ended in 1860.] There have been continuous, climactic shifts throughout history, and particularly in the last 15,000 years.
Why should someone read this book? Why should we as a society care about what happened to our ancestors?
They should read it simply to realize we don’t live in a little capsule. We live with the climate of the past; our society and our lives are a product of our ancestry, our history and our diversity. You can say today is unique, and it is. Every era is unique, but we live in the context of what happened before our time.
Spirituality, God, and gods come up regularly in your book. You mention that the creation of the Black Sea has been pointed to as possibly Noah’s flood. How much do you think religion comes into play when looking at climate change and human history?
There are a number of variables at work here. The reference to the Black Sea and Noah’s flood came from a book written by Walter Pitman and Walter Ryan [“Noah’s Flood: The New Scientific Discoveries about the Event that Changed History” (Simon & Schuster)], and the idea is very stretched out. Scientists don’t take this seriously; in blunt words, it’s nonsense. However, adverse climate change has been seen as anger by the gods throughout history. During the great rains of England in 1315, there were street processions of penance in the streets, asking for God’s mercy.
How close would you say we are to the threshold of environmental vulnerability?
We are getting mass melting [of ice] in the north … The Pentagon has even issued a report on this, because it is seen as a threat to national security.
What do you think?
History suggests it could. I suggest it could; I don’t suggest will. I deal with the past as an archaeologist, not in the future. But this was the most frightening lesson from this book: I had no idea how vulnerable we are. Futurologists tell me we will have wars over water within a century. They are probably right. It’s actually a no-brainer.
What can we do to change this from possibly happening?
The trouble with climate change, it is not an issue that affects you and I that much. It affects our grandchildren and our great grandchildren. We live in a society that is immediate, and politicians are reluctant to consider the problems of our children. We are not altruistic enough. But obviously reducing fossil fuels, conserving water, figuring out ways of self-sustainability, all are things we can do. A lot of it is planning and living responsibly; we have building codes that seem ludicrously strict. Right now, literally, I am building onto my house, and we have certainly paid a lot to fulfil these restrictive building codes. But without them, if we had an earthquake measuring 8 on the Richter scale, or if Miami had a category 5 hurricane, then we all would be in trouble. In fact, we still are.
You say in your book that talking about the causes of global warming is only a side debate. What do you mean by that?
What I mean is the issue now is not whether global warming exists–every scientist now says it does, and in 30 to 40 years with the new technology being developed, we will be able to say it with absolute certainty. But the real debate shouldn’t be whether it exists or not–we have to think of the future. The [United] States is really in denial. They are politically generations behind. The Kyoto agreement [which aims to cut down carbon rich gases globally and was rejected by the Bush administration] is a tragedy. Although having said that, there are people in the States who do care, just not Republican politicians. The interesting thing with the rising gas prices [now more than $2 per gallon] is that it may force us to look for different sources of energy.
The last paragraph of your epilogue compares our society today to a supertanker with a clueless crew. We waste enormous sums of money on going into Iraq, yet here we face problems of hunger, water and energy-resource shortages. In the past we have learned about civilizations collapsing because of these things.
The new movie “The Day After Tomorrow” premieres around the world the day after your book is released in England. Coincidence?
Sheer coincidence, unless the publisher planned it that way. [He didn’t.] This movie is sort of like Indiana Jones archaeology, but even the director admits that. If it does something to change the public’s consciousness, it has helped. I am dying to see this thing.
There is a lot of controversy with this movie–about whether it portrays an accurate depiction of the effects of global warming. What do you think?
The movie is a curious mix of climatology. I know they consulted experts, who are now keeping their distance. Basically, what we’ve got are a number of scenarios of global warming. One is that there will be more frequent extreme events, El Ninos, hurricanes, etc. The other is what the movie predicts. Either way, we have to take it much more seriously than we are currently.
What are you working on now?
I am working on a book called “Fish on Friday,” about how the [Roman] Catholic doctrine on eating fish on Fridays changed history. And it did.
