Berkeley, Calif.: What jobs and industries do you think will suffer most or disappear entirely as a result of new technology and a changing work force? TOM PETERS, management consultant: When a prospective M.B.A. asks me, “What industries should I look at? What industries should I ignore?” I am always rather rude. My response is: “Forget the demographics. What do you love. What turns you on?” In a world where the computer will take over the drudge work, you and I must deeply care about the work we’re doing. Thus, the issue is not “what’s good” or “what’s bad.” It is, instead: where do I want to make a unique contribution that will turn me on?
PAUL SAFFO, director of the Institute for the Future: Just as we once exported blue-collar jobs from the United States, we are on the verge of doing the same thing to white-collar. Software engineers already know this–their competition is low-priced professionals in India and China. And the call-center business is going overseas: chances are your next call to, say, AT&T will be picked up in Bangalore.
Lawrence, Kans.: The more employees are connected to the workplace via home computer, the fuzzier the line becomes between work and home. What steps can we take to keep the two separated? SAFFO: There is no such thing as home work, just home overwork. And it isn’t just technology that causes the blurring, but the fact that we live in a global society and must deal with ever-larger time-zone spans. If you are working with someone four time zones away, you can’t possibly get your job done between 9 and 5. Practically speaking, the only way to keep the two separated is with personal rituals and discipline: e.g., keep a schedule and a space that you use only for work.
New York: As artificial intelligence and automation get better in the future, what can human beings do to stay employed? PAUL HORN, director of the IBM Research Lab: I actually see the opposite being true: information technology is so complex that we need to hire more and more skilled professionals just to manage the complexity being created. This is one reason why the services industry is growing so quickly. So while robotics and automation might take over some of the most mundane tasks, the overall opportunity is growing.
Charlotte, N.C.: Do you think America can remain competitive in manufacturing? MIKE VOLPI, chief strategy officer, Cisco Systems: The United States’ competitive advantage in manufacturing will be based on the rich use of information technology. Thenotion that competitive advantage is driven by low-cost labor (which the United States does not have) is a thing of the past. Successful companies will utilize information technology to manage supply chains and manufacturing to drive efficiencies into their business and a long-term competitive advantage.
Perryopolis, Pa.: When it comes to flextime and telecommuting, will the traditionalists have to embrace the flexibility movement? JOHN F. KELLY, CEO, Alaska Air: There are some businesses and jobs where flextime simply doesn’t work, but I can’t imagine employers not embracing the concept more and more in the future. Not only does it help ensure a business can attract and retain quality employees, it also helps reduce the traffic congestion that is a major problem in virtually all major cities. A balance between flextime, telecommuting and regular business hours would be my guess as to the mix of the future.
Houston: What do you think the future job market will hold for baby-boomer professionals who plan to work into their late 60s? ROBERT SPECTOR, author and business historian: First of all, rather than group yourself with the baby-boomer professional cohort, the question should be: What does the future job market hold for me? What special contributions can or do you make to an organization? Regardless of what your job is, you must stay relevant by being current with the changes in your field and with the latest technology.
Royal Oak, Mich.: How can I convince my son, who is in a blue-collar job, that it is in his interest to pursue an education in computers or technology–assuming it is? HORN: The researchers and scientists I talk with say one thing: they want to change the world, and this industry gives them the opportunity to do that. The information-technology industry fundamentally impacts the way people live, work and play; and the scientists, engineers and researchers who are creating the future never lose sight of their impact. MICHAEL SCHRAGE, author and researcher, Massachusetts Institute of Technology: What is wrong with having a blue-collar job? I would argue that talented blue-collar workers can have as prosperous and interesting a life as talented white-collar managers. Now, do I think that blue-collar workers will become more dependent on computers or software to do their jobs well in the future? You bet I do.
Tulsa, Okla.: Do you think the work done by receptionists, administrative assistants and office managers will become obsolete as technology improves? Or willtechnology simply make their jobs easier? PETERS: I think they will become obsolete. The new white-collar software is taking dead aim not only at the jobs of receptionists and data-entry clerks, but at the jobs of architects and software designers and even management gurus. Which is to say that we’re all “under attack” and have got to figure out how to add value in new ways, just as your parents or grandparents did when factory work started to shrink and was supplanted by white-collar office work 70 to 90 years ago.
Montreal: I envision some increase indemand for high-tech, finance and top management executives, but a decrease in midlevel jobs. Won’t that result in a more polarized rich-vs.-poor society? ELAINE CHAO, Labor secretary: Annual labor statistics show a slightly different trend. Layoffs in the 1970s and 1980s hit middle management hard. As a result, companies got too lean in the middle. Today they are scrambling for good managers with skill and experience–they’re the heart of the company and top management knows it. America’s middle class is not shrinking. For instance, just look at homeownership. It is at a record high, at nearly 70 percent.
Foster City, Calif.: Do the latest proposals from high-tech entrepreneurs indicate that they have learned from past mistakes? MICHAEL MORITZ, venture capitalist, Sequoia Capital: Amnesia usually sets in fairly quickly in Silicon Valley as soon as the office buildings are full again. When everyone spots the next alluring lily pad, I’m sure the lessons of the last few years will be forgotten. At some point we’ll all start to say, “This time is different.”
Houston: What do you think the top career fields will be over the next decade and beyond? And why? SAFFO: I have a magazine from the 1970s that includes a “1984 Help Wanted” section. A few of the listings were: aquatic research assistant, cetacean linguist, cloneticist, genetic engineer, nonlethal-weapons designer, Dymaxion cartographer and used-hovercraft salesperson! The point is that we tend to focus only on weird new possibilities, when in fact most of the jobs stay more the same than different. That said, biotechnology is poised for major expansion over the next two decades and will generate both new jobs and new kinds of jobs, much as the information revolution did in the last 20 years.
